"Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent"
Our weekly ETF charting education focus
The SIRG Institutional model signal service is now available
at www.SungardenInvestment.com. What is it?
6 unique stock/ETF/option/bond strategies combined into 1 portfolio (that represents about 85% of my liquid assets), as well as expanded research and investment papers
New features in the premium research deck
As Chef Emeril Lagasse famously says, “let’s kick it up a notch!”
I’ve added an “at a glance” table with the 11 S&P 500 sector SPDR ETFs, and my quick comments on those which I think merit that.
All tables are now updated, so check the shared research deck.
We’d like to offer you a discount on Seeking Alpha Premium, a service I use and contribute to daily. If you want to check out the service you can save 20% for the first year!
Today’s commentary
As this article from the AEI public policy think tank reminds us, noted economist John Maynard Keynes was quoted as saying “markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.” By this he meant to warn investors not to bet the ranch on markets going down because of weak underlying economic or political fundamentals. From his own bitter experience, he had learnt that markets could choose to ignore even the weakest of fundamentals for longer than he could afford to maintain a short position.
Yup, that’s about where we are right now. Because my mantra is that the charts are the market’s way of telling us its story, and we just have to listen. Right now, the markets are screaming. It is quite loud. If you can’t quite make out the message, this is what I hear:
The stock market is going up, and the usual stuff that would stop it is not currently relevant
One day, the accumulation of a post-pandemic, liquidity and debt filled environment created by global central banks, and the historic speculation that it has bred (zero DTE options, Dogecoin or DJT stock, anyone?) will eventually cause a lot of 6-figure and 7-figure portfolios to lose a digit, maybe 2.
But it doesn’t matter until it matters. So what do investors do to simultaneously acknowledge the reality of this, while also doing what I consider to be “how I roll” as an investor at all times…
Avoid big loss, but make as much as I can beyond that first rule
Here’s how, with pictures to back up what I’m seeing, thinking and doing as the second quarter commences.