October 19, 2023
The latest research, market indicators and trade summaries from Sungarden Investment Publishing
(Return Opportunity and Risk)
If my choices are stocks and cash, what % would I have the stock market right now?
The current ROAR score is
Market in a Minute
The market always tells us a story…we just need to listen!
1. A funny thing happened on the way to the “Fed will cut rates soon” narrative. The bond market stopped caring so much about that.
2. Of all the swirling investment headlines this month, the key development is the relentless climb in long-term interest rates (from 10-30 years maturity).
3. We just saw 10-year US Treasury bond rates approach 5% for the first time since the summer of 2007. There are many implications for investors, a mixed blessing.
4. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have danced past that higher rate trend all year, even while most of the stock market has declined for the second straight year. But gradually, that stock index strength is breaking down.
5. Add it up: in 30 years on the “hot seat” as a professional investor, I’ve never seen a better market environment for a flexible, go-anywhere approach to investing. Fortunately, that’s the only way I’ve ever rolled. Expect high volatility AND opportunity.
Our ROAR Score remains at 10 for the fifth straight week. Our 2-ETF portfolio model is 10% SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and 90% BIL (T-bill ETF). The ROAR Score has not changed since we launched ETFYourself.com a month ago, but historically it changes about 2 out of every 5 weeks. The current market malaise keeps us from lifting it about its currently ultra-defensive level.
The 2-ETF portfolio has now outperformed the S&P 500 and a 60/40 stock/bond index by 14% and 10% respectively, since its inception at the start of 2022.
ETFYourself.com is new, but the investment process behind it has evolved over the past 3 decades. You bring the desire, we'll provide the tools!
The S&P X-Ray tracks our latest projected trading ranges
for the S&P 500
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to ETF Yourself to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.